Fitch Solutions forecasts a fifth consecutive year of contraction for Haiti's economy in FY2023, with real GDP falling 0.3 percent as protracted security and humanitarian crises keep economic activity from functioning normally.

Growth of 1.0 percent is projected for FY2024, which the analysts treat as a meagre result given how low the statistical base has fallen. Political and security risk is expected to stay elevated through 2023, with little room for an elected government to be re-established, and lawlessness and violence continuing without foreign troops arriving to stabilise matters.

For households, the outlook is severe: high inflation, food shortages and mounting humanitarian pressure in the months ahead.