Commissioned for the United Nations Secretary-General, Collier's report contends that Haiti's economic prospects are far better than its standing among so-called fragile states suggests. He points to a calm and prosperous neighbourhood, the absence of ethnic division or an armed opposition, a large and politically effective diaspora in North America, wage costs competitive with China's, proximity to the American market, and nine years of guaranteed duty-free access under HOPE II.

What is missing, on this account, is not potential but a strategy. Donors have treated strategy as the government's business alone, yet capacity is thin and the decisive levers sit with donors, the Security Council, parliament and investors, so commitments have to be made together rather than in sequence.

Collier proposes a deliberately narrow programme organised around employment, basic services, food supply and the environment, with quick results credited to Haitians. Urgency comes from the shocks of 2008 and from the fixed horizons of MINUSTAH and HOPE II.