Haitians vote and the nationalists beat the Port-au-Prince elite

Munro treats the election of 14 October 1930 as the moment the occupation lost its preferred interlocutors. Roy worked reasonably well with Russell and the treaty officials while preparing for the vote, and the American government left the matter entirely in his hands, instructing all American officials to do nothing that might influence the outcome. The result was a victory for the radical nationalist groups over the more conservative candidates backed by the leaders of the Port-au-Prince elite. When the new Congress met in November it elected Stenio Vincent president of the republic. Just before it assembled, General Russell resigned and Munro himself arrived as American minister with instructions to direct the treaty services and to create conditions in which the United States could withdraw as far as possible from Haiti's internal affairs.

The Fordney McCumber Act of 1922 had already set American import duties at prohibitive levels, and both parties promised more in 1928. Hoover wanted higher duties on farm imports and a tariff commission with power to adjust rates by half, which he thought would take the tariff out of congressional bargaining. What Congress produced was the Hawley Smoot Tariff of 1930, raising duties to the highest levels in American history. One thousand economists signed a petition asking for a veto. Thomas Lamont of J. P. Morgan said he had almost gone down on his knees to beg the president to reject it, and that the act sharpened nationalism everywhere. Hoover signed it in June 1930. Walter Lippmann wrote that the president had surrendered everything and got nothing. For countries that lived by selling coffee, sugar and other commodities into the American market, the door had just narrowed.

Dahomean society was organised into patrilineal sibs, each with a founder who was often an animal, a set of food taboos built around that founder, and a head who ruled through his access to the group's dead. Herskovits collected the names and origin stories of thirty seven of them in 1931 and thought the list incomplete. He wrote that no other part of Dahomean life met such resistance, including his questions about human sacrifice at the royal court. The information came only near the end of the stay, once his Dahomean friends had decided they could trust him, and it came at all because he could name deities his informants recognised from earlier fieldwork among the descendants of runaways in Dutch Guiana. The royal sib was called children of the panther, people of Allada, and its members were forbidden the meat of any spotted animal.

In December 1929 more than fifteen hundred Haitians marched on the southern port of Les Cayes carrying stones and clubs, in protest at what the world depression had done to a country that lived on coffee. Twenty United States marines held the town. They fired into the crowd and killed twelve people. Every element of the scene had been rehearsed in the Caribbean for four centuries: armed white men, unarmed black people, and a complaint about hunger treated as a public order problem. What made this repetition different was the audience. Washington now had to explain the deaths to American newspapers, and President Hoover authorised the Forbes Commission to examine the military occupation. It reached Haiti in February 1930 and recommended that Louis Borno hand power to a provisional government. Fourteen years of petitions, delegations to Congress and Senate testimony had moved the United States nowhere. Twelve bodies on a road outside Les Cayes started the machinery of withdrawal.